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2018 Oscar Predictions: The Year Without a Front-Runner




I haven’t been great about keeping tabs on this year’s Oscar race. Maybe that’s a good thing! But I’m very curious to see how things shake out with tomorrow’s nominations. This year has been almost shockingly without a front-runner, and while two films — The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri — seem to have emerged, there’s a great chance of a shake-up depending on nomination totals and how various narratives unspool in the coming days and weeks.

The following are my 2018 Oscar predictions. Feel free to point and laugh @johnlgilpatrick tomorrow.

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Alt: The Florida Project
Wish You Were Here: mother!

BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out

Alt: Steven Spielberg, The Post
Wish You Were Here: Darren Aronofsky, mother!

BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Alt: Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.
Wish You Were Here: Robert Pattinson, Good Time

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Alt: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Wish You Were Here: Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt: Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Wish You Were Here: Buddy Duress, Good Time

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

Alt: Hong Chau, Downsizing
Wish You Were Here: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

BEST EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Alt: Get Out
Wish You Were Here: mother!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt: The Post
Wish You Were Here: The Big Sick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All the Money in the World
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Alt: Logan
Wish You Were Here: Logan

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
In the Fade
The Insult
Loveless
The Square

Alt: Foxtrot
Wish You Were Here: BPM

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Alt: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Wish You Were Here: mother!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Post
The Shape of Water

Alt: Dunkirk
Wish You Were Here: mother!

BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: Wonder Woman
Wish You Were Here: Logan

BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: Wonder Woman
Wish You Were Here: Logan

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Alt: Victoria and Abdul
Wish You Were Here: Baby Driver

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Alt: The Post
Wish You Were Here: Wonderstruck

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
LA 92

Alt: Strong Island
Wish You Were Here: The Work

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
The Girl Without Hands
Loving Vincent

Alt: The Lego Batman Movie
Wish You Were Here: n/a

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Alt: Okja
Wish You Were Here: Get Out

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bright
Darkest Hour
Wonder

Alt: I, Tonya
Wish You Were Here: The Post

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

Alt: “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
Wish You Were Here: LOL

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